Severe Weather Outlook

There are six types of typical severe weather set-ups that meteorologists monitor. Some are specific to certain regions, like the Rockies or the southern Plains.

Elevated Dry-Layer Outbreaks
  • Classic pattern for Supercell storms, large hail, and tornadoes
  • Common during outbreaks from the Midwest to the southern plains.
  • Very high instability usually with a "cap" in place that keeps storms from developing too soon. Allows unstable air to "build up".
  • Typically triggered by cold front or other types of "lift" like outflow boundaries from other storms
  • Need shear, or change in wind direction and speed with height. This causes the storm rotation and tilted updraft which lets storms last longer.
Dryline storms
  • Good for Supercell storms, large hail, and tornadoes
  • Common in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas
  • Very high instability usually with a "cap" in place that keeps storms from developing too soon. Allows unstable air to "build up"
  • Triggered by dryline (separates moist air from very dry air).
  • Need shear, or change in wind direction and speed with height. This causes the storm rotation and tilted updraft which lets storms last longer.
Inverted V pattern
  • Occurs in the southern and central Rockies.
  • Causes microbursts and potential wildfire starters.
  • Air toward the surface is very dry, but hot weather can trigger storms.
  • Dry air causes strong downdrafts and hail.
Northwest Flow Pattern
  • Occurs usually in the north (Midwest, plains, Great Lakes, northeast).
  • Usually high wind producers.
  • Fast moving pattern with changes in wind speed with height.
  • Upper-level jetstream helps trigger storms.
Cold-core lows
  • Biggest cause of hail and isolated tornadoes in California severe storms.
  • Usually hail producers, only isolated tornadoes.
  • More common in winter and spring.
  • Cold air above and warm air below leads to unstable airmass.
Upslope Thunderstorms
  • Causes of major hail damage in Colorado every year.
  • Occur commonly in summer and fall along the Rockies from Wyoming to Colorado to New Mexico.
  • Typically produce large hail and tornadoes.
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